News & Insights

ARC Indices Estimates

04 February 2025, Daniel Hurdley

January 2025 Estimates

The year 2025 got off to a strong start with equity markets registering solid gains across the globe. Eurozone stocks led the way, rising approximately 8%. Gold had another good month gaining 6% in US dollar terms, while returns from fixed income were also mostly positive.

The headline numbers might give the impression that January lacked any excitement. This was certainly not the case.

At the start of the month, concerns over stubborn inflationary pressures and a weakening economy drove the yields on the UK 10-year and 30-year gilts to levels not seen since 2008 and the late 1990s respectively.

Towards the end of the month, Nvidia suffered a $600bn sell-off on news of the sudden emergence of DeepSeek, a low-cost competitor. This was the largest one-day loss ever recorded by a US company.

UK gilts subsequently recovered, with yields ending the month lower, while the equity market took the Nvidia fall in its stride, with US equities finishing the month higher despite negative returns from the information technology sector.

Investors should expect positive returns across all currencies and risk categories of the ARC Indices for the month.

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